Pies are set for a ‘big rise’ after trade coup. But a ‘scary’ reality could send them crashing

The Magpies have high expectations going into 2025 after adding Tim Membrey, Harry Perryman, and Dan Houston to their roster, solidifying the most seasoned team in the league while once again ignoring the draft.

Even though they lost ground as the defending premiers last year, they are firmly focused on the present and want to win a second flag in three years.

In addition to injuries and a lack of team continuity, the Pies also had costly mistakes during the season. Geelong (2022) and Richmond (2021), the two premiers who came before them, both missed finals the following year and have since taken different paths.

History indicates that one team always makes it from outside the finals into the top four, and Collingwood is hoping to recover from that setback.

Ben Dixon, a former Hawthorn sniper, is also selecting the Pies as that team.

This off-season, they’ve added some decent players. When you consider that I have them competing in the Grand Final, that’s a significant increase. They’re the bolter, in my opinion,” he told foxfooty.com.au.

“Like any good team, you have to figure out how to get through it, and I think they’re creative enough as a group. They had injuries during crucial moments last year, and because they had such a strong run of victories in close games the year before, it didn’t happen this year.

“However, I believe the lessons learnt from that, along with the maturity they have at the top end, are pretty damaging.”

Although the upper end is of excellent quality, it’s also getting on. Ten players over 30 are already on Collingwood’s roster, and two more will turn 30 this season.

Collingwood re-signed champions Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe, and Steele Sidebottom in addition to Will Hoskin-Elliott, keeping all of its stalwarts who had contracts expiring from the previous campaign. Given their significance to the club and the fact that several of those champions were approaching retirement, it was a difficult balancing act.

He will play for as long as he likes because Pendlebury is Pendlebury. The 37-year-old can still be Collingwood’s best player on his day and is maturing like a good wine.

Early in the season, Sidebottom had symptoms of deterioration. However, he had a good second half of the season, at times playing well as a tagger in a comeback that truly got the 34-year-old a new contract. If others pass Sidebottom, he might spend some time in the VFL this season.

The Pies’ back six still depends too much on Howe, 34, unless they can restock their defensive core, particularly in light of Nathan Murphy’s medical retirement and the club’s inability to sign Tom Doedee and Mark Keane.

However, losing too many veterans at once would be undesirable for Collingwood.

Several elder statesmen, including Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliott (both 32), Mason Cox (33), and Tom Mitchell (31) are all out of contract this year, along with Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, and Hoskin-Elliott.

It’s important to note that Houston, 27, and Perryman, 26, are established players who can help close the gap between the present and the future without having to risk losing money on draft picks or younger players already on the roster.

However, it is undeniable that Collingwood is once more depending on a number of players who are nearing the end of their careers to help it achieve its premiership goals.

Legendary Geelong player Cameron Mooney spoke about the dangers of doing so.

Given the lack of youthful talent on the Pies list except Nick Daicos, that has been questioned. “You can play when you’re old, but when you wake up the next day, you can’t,” Kevin Bartlett used to tell me. It comes that fast,” Mooney told foxfooty.com.au.

The frightening issue for them is that they have a few guys who might wake up tomorrow and be unable to play any longer. They remain, in my opinion, some of their most crucial players.

“I have no problem stating that Collingwood will be right up there to win it if those guys can stay healthy for the entire season. I really enjoyed what they did during the off-season.” Houston is an excellent football player, Perryman is an excellent person, and Membrey is another excellent marking choice for them.

“I think the old boys will give it a really good crack if they stay fit, and I like the inclusions.”

Before McRae took over as coach in 2022, the Magpies team appeared to be on the verge of rebuilding after falling far from the top of the league the previous season. One must question the extent to which their sudden, and in many respects unanticipated, recovery changed the approach.

With just Fin Macrae, Reef McInnes, and Beau McCreery left out of the club’s six selections (including Ollie Henry), the 2020 National draft, in which Collingwood made a significant investment, hasn’t held up well.

The Pies have only had one pick in the top 18 since then, Nick Daicos, and their recent drafts until 2020 haven’t yielded many standout players.

Traditionally, McRae has sided with his veterans and only given young players a short leash once they have entered the lineup.

Therefore, the fact that long-time recruiting manager Derek Hine is leaving this off-season as part of an off-field shake-up and Justin Leppitsch is taking over list management is a hint that they have simply lost faith in the previous draughting regime.

Without it, you can’t play good young talent, but the club also bears some of the blame for giving up that access.

Of course, with more list-building tools than ever before, the draft isn’t the only method to get talent through the door. One excellent example of going against the grain of a standard rebuild is the retooled Carts.

In an ideal world, the Pies would have a more balanced roster this year, including both young and senior players, and offer players like Macrae, Wil Parker, McInnes, Ed Allan, Tew Jiath, and Harry Demattia more chances.

The club would benefit both now and in the future from the appearance of such names.

Although it’s simple to see the Pies’ return to contention behind their all-star roster, this year’s field of contenders is as formidable.

Brisbane will return. Sydney remains primed. GWS may be in a better position than before. Carlton has everything he needs. It seems like Geelong and Port Adelaide get written off and then turn their detractors into believers. Gold Coast, Hawthorn, and Fremantle are also growing.

This group is very much on the clock, so the black and white will hope they get another chance.