290,000 people, big dreams: Small nation on the brink of making FIFA World Cup history and facing Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, and Kylian Mbappe in 2026

The road to theWorld Cup 2026 has already seen its fair share of drama, but one story stands out among the rest. While giants like Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and England and superstars including Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, and Kylian Mbappe are expected to feature in the tournament, a surprise contender has emerged—a little country from Oceania.

Their entire population of around 289,870 people is smaller than major global cities like New York (over 8 million), Tokyo (over 37 million), and London (around 9 million). Even cities like Los Angeles and Hong Kong, each with populations exceeding 7 million, are significantly larger–yet this little nation now stands on the brink of making soccer history.

With a victory in their next match, they will achieve an unprecedented feat—becoming the lowest-ranked team in World Cup qualifying history, surpassing North Korea’s 2010 squad, which held a FIFA ranking of 105 at the time. However, standing in their way is a formidable challenge—the reigning regional powerhouse New Zealand, fresh off a 7-0 demolition of Fiji in the semi-finals.

This remarkable underdog story belongs to New Caledonia, a French territory located 751.8 miles (1,210 km) east of Australia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. The island nation was only admitted to FIFA in 2004 and has never qualified for a World Cup. Yet, after a dominant 3-0 victory over Tahiti in the OFC World Cup qualifying semi-final, they are just one step away from securing their place on soccer’s grandest stage.

The victory over Tahiti was inspired by two goals from Georges Gope-Fenepej, who produced a stunning performance in Wellington. His first goal, a delicate chip over the goalkeeper in the 51st minute, gave New Caledonia the lead. He then sealed the match with a spectacular long-range effort in the 76th minute, before Lues Waya added a third in stoppage time.

Final test: Facing New Zealand on March 24

New Caledonia’s soccer rise comes at a time of great political unrest in the territory. Violent clashes in May 2024 led to the deployment of French military forces, creating instability in the region.  With no domestic soccer competition currently running due to the turmoil, Les Cagous have had to rely on sheer determination and unity.

Standing between them and history is New Zealand, the dominant force in Oceania. The All Whites have long been the region’s most successful team, famously qualifying for the 1982 and 2010 World Cups. They showed their strength once again in the semifinals with a 7-0 thrashing of Fiji, including a hat-trick from Chris Wood.

As the final looms on March 24 in Auckland, this South Pacific island side has the chance to achieve the impossible. Their qualification for the 2026 World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico,would be the most unprecedented for a side of their size and ranking if they were to win.